The specific number is irrelevant to my point though…
…which is that regardless of the number, I only agree with this idea for some short term windows. Not in the long term.
I disagree with that. I think some technologies DO go completely extinct - but that they’re generally not noticed because by the time they do, because (almost by definition) very few people have cared about them for a long time at that point.
Anyway, I don’t think our views overly differ for the question of TW backwards compatibility, I just don’t think “but older and older and older systems still get used” is a good argument, because as (…checks notes) you succinctly put it earlier “These are people for whom shopping, banking, and netflixing have already failed. Presumably their expectations have adjusted.”
Assuming 5.4.0 comes out some time in 2026, then it supporting ES2017 is a 9 year browser compatibility window. Is there any reason not to just call this the compatibility window going forward? ES2018 in TW2027, ES2020 in TW2029, etc? (I’m not suggesting a new TW each year supporting each ES version in turn, just that it seems to provide a good basis to go by. Maybe even round it up to an even decade in the future for extra compatibility safety and memory convenience)